The major powers` approaches to international intervention: an automated text analysis of the United Nations Security Council debates

Abstract

The United Nations Security Council (UNSC), one of the six principal organs of the United Nations (UN), is primarily responsible for maintaining international peace and security. It convenes public meetings where members discuss potential threats to international peace and share perspectives on various international conflicts. During these debates, members may highlight different facets of a situation and suggest varied courses of action to achieve conflict settlement. This thesis seeks to answer the following question: What are the differences and similarities between the UNSC permanent members’ approaches to international intervention? To answer this question, this work introduces a typology of approaches to international intervention, encompassing the principal tools and themes in UNSC practices, informed by key UN documents and the literature on international conflicts. Utilising this typology, the study conducts an automated text analysis of 14,170 speeches by the UNSC permanent members from January 1992 to December 2023, employing an updated version of the UN Security Council Debates Dataset. Through the dictionary’s categories, this research examines each permanent member's most emphasised approaches in their speeches. The dictionary effectively identifies each member’s position in the Council, corroborating prior studies and contributing new insights. The study reveals that all permanent members display high and similar mentions of peacemaking, humanitarian assistance, and counter-terrorism. The categories of sanctions, peacekeeping, and non-proliferation are also commonly mentioned, albeit less frequently. The United States, the United Kingdom, and France strongly align their approach to international intervention, reflecting literature on the Western coalition within the Council. Concerning the main differences between the permanent members, the P3’s focus is on humanitarian assistance, state responsibility, and international justice. China prioritises peacemaking, sovereignty, and peacebuilding, while Russia often emphasises counter-terrorism, particularly in relation to drug trafficking. This research develops and validates a dictionary for analysing approaches to international intervention, offering a comprehensive view of 32 years of post-Cold War UNSC debates. It highlights overarching trends and specific emphases of individual members in particular meetings. Thus, it contributes to international relations literature by providing a tool for future research, aiding in causal research designs and exploratory studies that mobilise and look at other actors and situations.