Uncertainty management in software projects

Abstract

Various projects types are proposed with different objectives; it is necessary to manage strategically, according to organizational goals. Successful projects increase sales, reduce costs, improve quality, customer satisfaction, the work environment; among other benefits. An increasing number of companies use project management as a key strategy for maintaining competitiveness, increasing the value possibility to their business. However, many projects with all the ingredients for success fail. One reason for this is related to failure in assessing the uncertainties by executives, managers and project team. In a typical software development environment it is not different. Thus, the aim of this work is to propose an approach to manage uncertainties in software projects to contribute to their better performance and influence their success. The research method used in this work is based on the principles of Evidence-Based Software Engineering. During the guide conception stage an exploratory literature research on managing uncertainty in software projects and a systematic literature review on the state of the art theme in a more structured way along with an action research conducted in a software development project were conducted. In addition, semi-structured interviews with software industry experts and researchers in the field were carried out in order to obtain improvement to the approach. In the evaluation phase a focus group was conducted to evaluate the proposed approach. The results showed that an exploratory literature review helped to characterize the difference between risk and uncertainty and mapped the uncertainty sources. The systematic literature review found 5 ways to manage uncertainties in projects; 18 practices for project management focusing on reducing uncertainties; a confirmation of the uncertainty sources mapped in primary studies and the relationship between uncertainty and innovative projects was assessed. In the action research there was an application of techniques and strategies in projects and investigation on whether those contributed to uncertainty; in semi-structured interviews the addition of the practical point of view for the approach was evaluated and added. Finally, the focus group was performed to assess the elaborated approach. The results of this research contribute to software project management by defining an approach to uncertainty management, as well as describing strategies and guidelines for team members.